Highland Creek Canvass Crosstabs

Vote intention

Vote intention	Raw n	Raw %	Wtd n	Wtd %	Change (pts)
Chow	62	25%	66	27%	+2
Bradford	49	20%	43	17%	−2
Other	8	3%	8	3%	0
Don't know	82	33%	79	32%	−1
Won't vote	38	15%	43	17%	+2
Blank or 2+ boxes	9	4%	8	3%	0
Base	248	100%	248	100%

	Totaln 248		18-29n 34		30-49n 61		50-64n 87		65+n 41
Column %	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd
Chow	25	27	24	27	26	27	25	26	24	27
Bradford	20	17	3	2	15	15	29	27	29	28
Other	3	3	9	9	3	3	3	3	0	0
Don't know	33	32	21	20	44	43	32	33	32	31
Won't vote	15	17	44	42	11	12	6	5	12	11
Blank or 2+ boxes	4	3	0	0	0	0	5	5	2	2
Chow lead over Bradford (pts)	+5	+9	+21	+25	+11	+12	−3	−1	−5	−1
Base (n)	248	248	34	51	61	53	87	58	41	59

	Totaln 248		S. Asian / Mid. Eastn 112		Whiten 70		E. / SE Asiann 29 †		Blackn 24 †		Latin Americann 3 ‡
Column %	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd
Chow	25	27	23	24	27	27	38	42	21	26	0	0
Bradford	20	17	19	17	26	25	10	6	21	19	0	0
Other	3	3	4	5	1	1	0	0	4	5	33	14
Don't know	33	32	36	34	33	32	31	31	38	34	33	39
Won't vote	15	17	15	17	11	12	17	19	17	15	33	47
Blank or 2+ boxes	4	3	3	2	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	0
Chow lead over Bradford (pts)	+5	+9	+4	+7	+1	+2	+28	+36	0	+7	0	0
Base (n)	248	248	112	111	70	53	29	40	24	28	3	3

	Totaln 248		Chown 89		Bailãon 3 ‡		Saundersn 13 †		Othern 32		Didn't voten 96
Column %	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd
Chow	25	27	48	51	0	0	23	30	13	13	10	11
Bradford	20	17	13	12	67	83	77	70	13	8	18	15
Other	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	19	19	2	2
Don't know	33	32	29	27	33	17	0	0	50	53	36	33
Won't vote	15	17	6	6	0	0	0	0	3	4	32	37
Blank or 2+ boxes	4	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	3	2	1	1
Chow lead over Bradford (pts)	+5	+9	+35	+39	−67	−83	−54	−39	0	+6	−7	−4
Base (n)	248	248	89	91	3	3	13	11	32	31	96	95

Candidate	Raw n	Raw %	Wtd n	Wtd %	Change (pts)
Chow	62	52%	66	56%	+4
Bradford	49	41%	43	37%	−4
Other	8	7%	8	7%	0

	Totaln 119		18-29n 12 †		30-49n 27 †		50-64n 50		65+n 22 †
Column %	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd
Chow	52	56	67	71	59	60	44	47	45	49
Bradford	41	37	8	5	33	33	50	49	55	51
Other	7	7	25	25	7	7	6	5	0	0
Chow lead over Bradford (pts)	+11	+20	+58	+66	+26	+26	−6	−2	−9	−2
Base (n)	119	118	12	19	27	24	50	32	22	33

	Totaln 119		S. Asian / Mid. Eastn 52		Whiten 38		E. / SE Asiann 14 †		Blackn 11 †		Latin Americann 1 ‡
Column %	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd
Chow	52	56	50	52	50	50	79	88	45	52	0	0
Bradford	41	37	40	37	47	47	21	12	45	38	0	0
Other	7	7	10	11	3	3	0	0	9	10	100	100
Chow lead over Bradford (pts)	+11	+20	+10	+14	+3	+3	+57	+76	0	+14	0	0
Base (n)	119	118	52	51	38	29	14	19	11	14	1	0

	Totaln 119		Chown 55		Bailãon 2 ‡		Saundersn 13 †		Othern 14 †		Didn't voten 29 †
Column %	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd
Chow	52	56	78	81	0	0	23	30	29	33	34	39
Bradford	41	37	22	19	100	100	77	70	29	19	59	54
Other	7	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	43	48	7	8
Chow lead over Bradford (pts)	+11	+20	+56	+61	−100	−100	−54	−39	0	+14	−24	−15
Base (n)	119	118	55	58	2	3	13	11	14	13	29	27

	Totaln 248		18-29n 34		30-49n 61		50-64n 87		65+n 41
Column %	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd
Chow	36	37	24	24	36	39	39	39	44	46
Bailão	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	3	2	3
Saunders	5	5	3	2	7	5	5	4	10	9
Other	13	13	15	16	13	14	17	17	7	8
Didn't vote	39	38	59	58	41	39	31	32	27	22
Blank or 2+ boxes	6	6	0	0	3	4	6	6	10	11
Base (n)	248	248	34	51	61	53	87	58	41	59

	Totaln 248		S. Asian / Mid. Eastn 112		Whiten 70		E. / SE Asiann 29 †		Blackn 24 †		Latin Americann 3 ‡
Column %	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd	Raw	Wtd
Chow	36	37	38	37	36	40	52	53	25	26	0	0
Bailão	1	1	2	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Saunders	5	5	4	3	10	10	0	0	4	8	0	0
Other	13	13	15	15	9	7	10	13	21	19	33	14
Didn't vote	39	38	36	37	40	38	38	34	46	42	67	86
Blank or 2+ boxes	6	6	5	6	4	4	0	0	4	4	0	0
Base (n)	248	248	112	111	70	53	29	40	24	28	3	3

2023 candidate	Raw n	Raw %	Wtd %	Actual 2023	Wtd − actual (pts)
Chow	89	65%	67%	27.3%	+39
Bailão	3	2%	2%	40.6%	−38
Saunders	13	9%	8%	9.1%	−1
Other	32	23%	23%	23.0%	0

0.39–2.66Weight range

1.20Design effect

207Effective sample size

±6.8Margin of error, weighted (raw ±6.2), pts at 95%

Variable	Group	Census count	Target	Raw n	Raw %	Wtd %
Age	18-29	2,475	23.1%	34	15.2%	23.1%
	30-49	2,585	24.1%	61	27.4%	24.1%
	50-64	2,790	26.0%	87	39.0%	26.0%
	65+	2,875	26.8%	41	18.4%	26.8%
	Not recorded	—	—	25	—	—
Gender	Men	41,540	48.1%	131	56.7%	48.1%
	Women	44,905	51.9%	100	43.3%	51.9%
	Not recorded	—	—	17	—	—
Race/ethnicity	South Asian/Middle Eastern	5,620	47.0%	112	47.1%	47.0%
	White	2,705	22.6%	70	29.4%	22.6%
	East/Southeast Asian	2,050	17.2%	29	12.2%	17.2%
	Black	1,435	12.0%	24	10.1%	12.0%
	Latin American	140	1.2%	3	1.3%	1.2%
	Not recorded	—	—	10	—	—

Raw is unweighted. Wtd is raked to 2021 Census age, gender and race/ethnicity. † base under 30, ‡ base under 10. Respondents with a demographic not recorded appear in Total only.
Targets: age is Highland Creek residents 18+ (18–19 estimated from the 15–19 band); gender is Ward 25 residents 15+, since the neighbourhood profile has no gender split; race/ethnicity is Highland Creek residents of all ages, excluding the "n.i.e." and multiple visible minority groups.
Actual 2023: by-election, election-day polls in Highland Creek (approximate).
Sources: 41 canvass sheets, each transcribed twice; City of Toronto 2021 Neighbourhood and Ward Profiles. Prepared 25 October 2026.